June’s unemployment numbers were released last week to the tune of 8.5% in Fayette County and 9.2% in our Bluegrass Alliance region. This compares with 7.7% and 8.6% in May respectively. The trends for all of the areas we monitor are below. You can see that Fayette County is basically following local, state, and national trends. NKY is the one oddball here that refuses to go along with everyone else. I would love to see some analysis on their region’s economy.
The uptick in unemployment can be disconcerting, but as always, it is good to put the changes from month to month in historical and seasonal context. The actual change of .8% from May to June in Fayette County is higher than any other year in this decade, however, the magnitude of the change is still high, but not unheard of, in the past few years.
The volatility of employment in the current economy can be hard to observe some months. Even when an economy seems to be either “out of the woods” or on the upswing, unemployment can be persistent. Unfortunately, the data needed to make really solid assumptions on the underlying problems is rarely available in as timely of a manner as the LAUS (Local Area Unemployment Statistics) numbers are each month. As I’ve said before, we’ll know a great deal more about the most recent recession in a couple of years.